In December, Chinese imports surged as American consumers sought to dodge the tariffs suggested by Trump.

China’s exports to the United States surged in the last month of 2024 as traders rushed to beat new tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to impose as soon as he takes office on Monday.

According to a report released this week by China's General Administration of Customs, the country's exports to the United States reached a record high of $48.8 billion in December, marking the peak for 2024. This figure represents a 16% increase compared to December 2023.

Analysts noted that the spike in December was probably linked to expected increases in tariffs, prompting traders to expedite their shipments from China. Trump has repeatedly indicated his plans to implement tariffs on Chinese products. While he often refers to a 60% tariff, he has also warned during his campaign of potential tariffs reaching 100%.

“We can't see into the motives of people, but it does look like there's some stockpiling or preordering with the expectation that there will be tariffs coming,” said Mary Lovely, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think tank based in Washington, D.C. 

Is it wise to stockpile in order to circumvent tariffs?

According to Lovely, although traders might be accumulating supplies, it would not be feasible for American consumers to do the same for all their purchases.

"You should be cautious about accumulating items that may not be necessary," she advised, "but if you're considering purchasing something like a laptop or a new phone, I would encourage you to proceed with that."

According to Nico Palesch, a senior economist at Oxford Economics with expertise in global industries, manufacturers are purchasing items like machinery and auto parts in anticipation of Trump implementing tariffs, which would lead to a significant increase in equipment prices.

This technique is known as front-loading.

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Palesch noted that the increase in those import categories in December indicates a trend of front-loading.

The approach may prove beneficial if it allows manufacturers the opportunity to seek alternative suppliers in different countries, or if they are optimistic that the U.S. and China will come to an agreement that prevents the implementation of tariffs.

He noted that the advantages are restricted. While companies may experience some short-term savings, “it’s really just postponing the issue for a later time.”

Palesch noted that the combination of those orders and an increase in consumer demand for goods is leading to a rise in imports, stating, “The demand for imports in the U.S. is notably robust.”

China's exports reach all-time highs.

Apart from a surge in exports observed in December 2021, when economic activities resumed following the pandemic, China's exports to the U.S. reached a ten-year